This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing comperio’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
comperio | training | published before 2020 | 25 | 22 |
comperio | validation | published 2020 | 2 | 2 |
comperio | test | published after 2020 | 5 | 0 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
comperio | Scenario Mission Campaign Game | 40.0% | 2.0% | 19.65 |
comperio | Solo Solitaire Game | 56.0% | 3.3% | 17.18 |
comperio | Fantasy Flight Games | 20.0% | 1.2% | 17.18 |
comperio | Has Miniatures | 32.0% | 2.0% | 15.92 |
comperio | GameWright | 12.0% | 0.8% | 15.77 |
comperio | Variable Setup | 20.0% | 1.4% | 13.88 |
comperio | Games With Solitaire Rules | 60.0% | 5.2% | 11.58 |
comperio | Collectible Components | 20.0% | 1.8% | 11.41 |
comperio | Cooperative Game | 68.0% | 6.2% | 11.04 |
comperio | Deck Bag And Pool Building | 32.0% | 3.2% | 9.97 |
comperio | Adventure | 48.0% | 5.0% | 9.57 |
comperio | Variable Player Powers | 84.0% | 11.9% | 7.03 |
comperio | Artist Harald Lieske | 4.0% | 0.6% | 7.03 |
comperio | Campaign Battle Card Driven | 16.0% | 2.6% | 6.23 |
comperio | Fantasy | 64.0% | 11.9% | 5.40 |
comperio | Science Fiction | 32.0% | 7.6% | 4.23 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2016 | 187687 | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Mummy's Mask – Base Set | 0.854 | yes |
2 | 2013 | 133038 | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Rise of the Runelords – Base Set | 0.720 | yes |
3 | 2007 | 31053 | Pirates of the Caribbean PocketModel Game | 0.643 | no |
4 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.628 | no |
5 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.596 | yes |
6 | 2016 | 205059 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | 0.571 | no |
7 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.488 | yes |
8 | 2014 | 151007 | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Skull & Shackles – Base Set | 0.463 | yes |
9 | 2017 | 175254 | Apocrypha Adventure Card Game: Box One – The World | 0.380 | no |
10 | 2015 | 169416 | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Wrath of the Righteous – Base Set | 0.377 | yes |
11 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.281 | no |
12 | 2018 | 189154 | The Ninth World: A Skillbuilding Game for Numenera | 0.254 | no |
13 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.242 | no |
14 | 2017 | 188920 | This War of Mine: The Board Game | 0.238 | no |
15 | 2012 | 121921 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | 0.198 | no |
16 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.151 | no |
17 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.142 | yes |
18 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.133 | no |
19 | 2012 | 133992 | Sorcerers of the Magic Kingdom | 0.125 | no |
20 | 2007 | 28143 | Race for the Galaxy | 0.124 | no |
21 | 2004 | 10653 | Pirates of the Spanish Main | 0.124 | no |
22 | 2017 | 192135 | Too Many Bones | 0.123 | no |
23 | 2017 | 226320 | My Little Scythe | 0.119 | no |
24 | 2019 | 285774 | Marvel Champions: The Card Game | 0.110 | yes |
25 | 2017 | 192455 | First Martians: Adventures on the Red Planet | 0.105 | no |
26 | 2014 | 150926 | Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age | 0.102 | no |
27 | 2014 | 167828 | Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age with Mediterranean Expansion | 0.095 | no |
28 | 2003 | 7860 | Simpsons Trading Card Game | 0.093 | no |
29 | 2005 | 17166 | Clout Fantasy | 0.087 | no |
30 | 2007 | 27710 | Catan Dice Game | 0.087 | no |
31 | 2019 | 253344 | Cthulhu: Death May Die | 0.078 | no |
32 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.077 | no |
33 | 2011 | 77423 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game | 0.075 | yes |
34 | 2014 | 160018 | Smash Up: Monster Smash | 0.075 | no |
35 | 2013 | 136063 | Forbidden Desert | 0.071 | yes |
36 | 2018 | 255692 | New Frontiers | 0.070 | no |
37 | 2019 | 259830 | Hedgehog Roll | 0.070 | no |
38 | 2017 | 170771 | Sword & Sorcery | 0.068 | no |
39 | 2018 | 245271 | Forbidden Sky | 0.068 | yes |
40 | 2015 | 160610 | Thunderbirds | 0.063 | no |
41 | 2019 | 169427 | Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1 | 0.059 | no |
42 | 2005 | 15987 | Arkham Horror | 0.058 | no |
43 | 2019 | 262141 | Dungeon Brawler | 0.056 | no |
44 | 2018 | 259970 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Two-Player Limited Edition Starter | 0.055 | no |
45 | 2016 | 152172 | Nova Aetas | 0.053 | no |
46 | 2018 | 159011 | Thornwatch | 0.052 | no |
47 | 2011 | 100423 | Elder Sign | 0.050 | no |
48 | 2016 | 149787 | Perdition's Mouth: Abyssal Rift | 0.050 | no |
49 | 2016 | 190400 | Aventuria: Adventure Card Game | 0.049 | no |
50 | 2016 | 191189 | Aeon's End | 0.049 | no |
51 | 2017 | 197831 | Dark Souls: The Board Game | 0.049 | no |
52 | 2016 | 203800 | Dust 1947 | 0.048 | no |
53 | 2011 | 42776 | Gears of War: The Board Game | 0.048 | no |
54 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.048 | no |
55 | 2019 | 241451 | Aeon's End: Legacy | 0.046 | no |
56 | 2018 | 235802 | Too Many Bones: Undertow | 0.046 | no |
57 | 2006 | 21241 | Neuroshima Hex! 3.0 | 0.046 | no |
58 | 2015 | 55690 | Kingdom Death: Monster | 0.045 | no |
59 | 2018 | 207243 | The City of Kings | 0.045 | no |
60 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.044 | no |
61 | 2018 | 218421 | Street Masters | 0.044 | no |
62 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.044 | yes |
63 | 1976 | 3083 | Submarine | 0.043 | no |
64 | 2011 | 91872 | Dungeons & Dragons: The Legend of Drizzt Board Game | 0.043 | no |
65 | 2017 | 197376 | Charterstone | 0.042 | no |
66 | 2013 | 146021 | Eldritch Horror | 0.042 | no |
67 | 2018 | 264198 | Warhammer Quest: Blackstone Fortress | 0.041 | no |
68 | 1985 | 1540 | BattleTech | 0.039 | no |
69 | 2018 | 265202 | Bag of Dungeon: A Fantasy Adventure Game | 0.039 | no |
70 | 1979 | 3625 | DeathMaze | 0.038 | no |
71 | 2008 | 37046 | Ghost Stories | 0.038 | no |
72 | 2015 | 181521 | Warhammer Quest: The Adventure Card Game | 0.038 | no |
73 | 2019 | 266507 | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated | 0.037 | no |
74 | 1997 | 2844 | Throneworld | 0.036 | no |
75 | 2010 | 67878 | Dungeon Crawler | 0.036 | no |
76 | 2019 | 283317 | The 7th Continent: Classic Edition | 0.036 | no |
77 | 2017 | 209696 | Star Saga | 0.035 | no |
78 | 2000 | 823 | The Lord of the Rings | 0.035 | no |
79 | 1992 | 311 | Time Agent | 0.035 | no |
80 | 2019 | 262712 | Res Arcana | 0.035 | no |
81 | 2008 | 38453 | Space Alert | 0.035 | no |
82 | 2017 | 180263 | The 7th Continent | 0.035 | yes |
83 | 2016 | 171726 | Project: ELITE | 0.034 | no |
84 | 2010 | 62227 | Labyrinth: The War on Terror, 2001 – ? | 0.033 | no |
85 | 2002 | 2876 | Mage Knight Dungeons | 0.032 | no |
86 | 2010 | 65244 | Forbidden Island | 0.032 | yes |
87 | 2019 | 264220 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | 0.032 | yes |
88 | 2018 | 248861 | Metro X | 0.032 | no |
89 | 2015 | 169984 | Stowaway 52 | 0.032 | no |
90 | 2015 | 169255 | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | 0.031 | no |
91 | 1996 | 3492 | Dragon Storm | 0.031 | no |
92 | 2017 | 234669 | Legacy of Dragonholt | 0.031 | no |
93 | 2017 | 232918 | Fallout | 0.030 | no |
94 | 2018 | 254591 | Heroes of Terrinoth | 0.030 | no |
95 | 2019 | 207991 | Quodd Heroes | 0.029 | no |
96 | 2018 | 154910 | Darklight: Memento Mori | 0.029 | no |
97 | 2005 | 20545 | Rory's Story Cubes | 0.029 | no |
98 | 2013 | 138161 | Firefly: The Game | 0.028 | no |
99 | 2015 | 176189 | Zombicide: Black Plague | 0.028 | no |
100 | 2015 | 156548 | Super Dungeon Explore: Forgotten King | 0.028 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.95 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.62 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think comperio is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2007 | 31053 | Pirates of the Caribbean PocketModel Game | 0.643 | no |
2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.628 | no |
2016 | 205059 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | 0.571 | no |
2017 | 175254 | Apocrypha Adventure Card Game: Box One – The World | 0.380 | no |
2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.281 | no |
What games does the model think comperio is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2000 | 864 | Mage Knight | 0.000 | yes |
2018 | 268191 | Dice Throne: Season Two – Battle Chest Champion Edition | 0.000 | yes |
1995 | 13 | Catan | 0.000 | yes |
2016 | 169426 | Roll Player | 0.001 | yes |
2014 | 132531 | Roll for the Galaxy | 0.001 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Rise of the Runelords – Base Set | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Skull & Shackles – Base Set | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Wrath of the Righteous – Base Set | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Mummy's Mask – Base Set | Gloomhaven | The Ninth World: A Skillbuilding Game for Numenera | Tapestry |
2 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | Forbidden Desert | Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age | Thunderbirds | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Apocrypha Adventure Card Game: Box One – The World | New Frontiers | Aftermath |
3 | Sorcerers of the Magic Kingdom | Eldritch Horror | Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age with Mediterranean Expansion | Kingdom Death: Monster | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | Spirit Island | Forbidden Sky | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
4 | Starship Merchants | Firefly: The Game | Smash Up: Monster Smash | Warhammer Quest: The Adventure Card Game | Nova Aetas | This War of Mine: The Board Game | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Two-Player Limited Edition Starter | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
5 | Zombicide | Rory's Story Cubes: Enchanted | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | Stowaway 52 | Perdition's Mouth: Abyssal Rift | Too Many Bones | Thornwatch | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
6 | Mice and Mystics | Rory's Story Cubes: Clues | Warfighter: The Tactical Special Forces Card Game | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | Aventuria: Adventure Card Game | My Little Scythe | Too Many Bones: Undertow | Last Bastion |
7 | Star Trek: Catan | Room 25 | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | Zombicide: Black Plague | Aeon's End | First Martians: Adventures on the Red Planet | The City of Kings | Hedgehog Roll |
8 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Sushi Go! | Legendary Encounters: An Alien Deck Building Game | Super Dungeon Explore: Forgotten King | Dust 1947 | Sword & Sorcery | Street Masters | Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1 |
9 | Level 7 [Escape] | Hoplomachus: Rise of Rome | Galaxy Defenders | XCOM: The Board Game | Terraforming Mars | Dark Souls: The Board Game | Warhammer Quest: Blackstone Fortress | Dungeon Brawler |
10 | Urbion | Malifaux (Second Edition) | Assault on Doomrock | Rory's Story Cubes: Batman | Scythe | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Bag of Dungeon: A Fantasy Adventure Game | Aeon's End: Legacy |
11 | Escape: The Curse of the Temple | Dungeon Roll | Outfoxed! | Tiny Epic Defenders | Project: ELITE | Charterstone | Metro X | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
12 | Legends of Andor | City of Remnants | Warhammer 40,000: Conquest | Runebound (Third Edition) | Star Wars: Rebellion | Star Saga | Heroes of Terrinoth | The 7th Continent: Classic Edition |
13 | The Lord of the Rings: The Complete Trilogy – Adventure Board Game | SOS Titanic | Machina Arcana | Viticulture Essential Edition | V-Sabotage | The 7th Continent | Darklight: Memento Mori | Res Arcana |
14 | Baden-Württemberg Catan | Cube Quest | Run, Fight, or Die! | Argonauts | Czas Zaorać Socjalizm | Legacy of Dragonholt | Renegade | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
15 | Android: Netrunner | BattleLore: Second Edition | La Granja | Between Two Cities | Black Orchestra | Fallout | Village Attacks | Quodd Heroes |
16 | Andean Abyss | Star Trek: Attack Wing | Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients | Smash Up: Pretty Pretty Smash Up | Star Trek: Frontiers | Magic Maze | Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) | Hellboy: The Board Game |
17 | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game | BattleCON: Devastation of Indines | Golem Arcana | Star Wars: Armada | Ranglin' Rabbits | A Game of Thrones: Catan – Brotherhood of the Watch | Lords of Hellas | Cloudspire |
18 | Freedom: The Underground Railroad | Glass Road | Imperial Settlers | Tiny Epic Galaxies | Smash Up: It's Your Fault! | Sub Terra | Nemesis | Nights of Fire: Battle for Budapest |
19 | The Big Fat Tomato Game | The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug | Pandemic: The Cure | Grimslingers | One Deck Dungeon | Rory's Story Cubes: Fantasia | Darkest Night (Second Edition) | Atlantis Rising (Second Edition) |
20 | FitzIt | Warhammer: Diskwars | Onirim (Second Edition) | Burgle Bros. | Pandemic: Iberia | Jump Drive | The Order of Vampire Hunters | Hellenica: Story of Greece |
21 | Catan: Family Edition | Veritas | Sons of Anarchy: Men of Mayhem | 504 | Nautilion | Escape the Dark Castle | Cahoots | Wingspan |
22 | Darkest Night | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Arcadia Quest | Yashima: Legend of the Kami Masters | Mechs vs. Minions | Gaia Project | Sine Tempore | Black Rose Wars |
23 | Space Cadets | Gearworld: The Borderlands | Hyperborea | Dungeons & Dragons: Temple of Elemental Evil Board Game | Qwixx Deluxe | Nemo's War (Second Edition) | Tierra y Libertad: The Mexican Revolution Game (Second Edition) | Crusader Kings |
24 | Spinnengift und Krötenschleim | A Distant Plain | Super Tooth | The Undercity: An Iron Kingdoms Adventure Board Game | Falling Sky: The Gallic Revolt Against Caesar | Dragonfire | Star Realms: Frontiers | Core Space |
25 | Agents of SMERSH | Zpocalypse | Catan: Ancient Egypt | FUSE | Blood Bowl (2016 Edition) | Betrayal at Baldur's Gate | The Pirate Republic | Dungeons & Dragons: Waterdeep – Dungeon of the Mad Mage Board Game |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
comperio | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.724 |
comperio | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.498 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.274 | no |
2020 | 262208 | Dungeon Drop | 0.187 | no |
2020 | 280794 | Etherfields | 0.090 | no |
2020 | 282922 | Windward | 0.070 | no |
2020 | 262274 | D6: Dungeons, Dudes, Dames, Danger, Dice and Dragons! | 0.035 | no |
2020 | 304434 | Victim: The Cursed Forest | 0.027 | no |
2020 | 236861 | Full Moon Jacket | 0.027 | no |
2020 | 316412 | The LOOP | 0.025 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.023 | no |
2020 | 295604 | Rangers of Shadow Deep: Deluxe Edition | 0.021 | no |
2020 | 298047 | Marvel United | 0.020 | no |
2020 | 256940 | Krosmaster: Blast | 0.019 | no |
2020 | 233262 | Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef | 0.016 | no |
2020 | 271055 | Dwellings of Eldervale | 0.016 | no |
2020 | 307033 | Space Marine Adventures: Rise of the Orks | 0.015 | no |
2020 | 226506 | Rambo: The Board Game | 0.014 | no |
2020 | 248125 | Monumental | 0.014 | no |
2020 | 207486 | Infinities: Defiance of Fate | 0.014 | no |
2020 | 306735 | Under Falling Skies | 0.014 | no |
2020 | 256999 | Project: ELITE | 0.014 | no |
2020 | 316750 | The Princess Bride Adventure Book Game | 0.013 | no |
2020 | 273703 | Altar Quest | 0.011 | no |
2020 | 294652 | By Stealth and Sea | 0.011 | no |
2020 | 312804 | Pendulum | 0.011 | no |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.011 | no |
2020 | 311020 | Marvel Battleworld | 0.011 | no |
2020 | 257145 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Adventures: City Fall | 0.011 | no |
2020 | 315196 | Dungeons & Dragons: Adventure Begins | 0.010 | no |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.010 | no |
2020 | 332782 | Cantaloop: Prequel | 0.009 | no |
2020 | 325555 | Cantaloop: Book 1 – Breaking into Prison | 0.009 | no |
2020 | 248072 | Don't Let It Die | 0.009 | no |
2020 | 299317 | Aeon's End: Outcasts | 0.008 | no |
2020 | 306577 | Der Clou: Roll & Heist | 0.008 | no |
2020 | 147635 | Dungeon Crusade: Book I – Genesis of Evil | 0.008 | no |
2020 | 304620 | World of Tanks Miniatures Game | 0.008 | no |
2020 | 309600 | Archers of Nand | 0.007 | no |
2020 | 315954 | Hunt A Killer: Death at the Dive Bar | 0.007 | no |
2020 | 296605 | Adventure of D (Second Edition) | 0.007 | no |
2020 | 204470 | The Stygian Society | 0.007 | no |
2020 | 313698 | Monster Expedition | 0.007 | no |
2020 | 322984 | Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients (Revised Edition) | 0.006 | no |
2020 | 322985 | Shadows of Brimstone: Swamps of Death (Revised Edition) | 0.006 | no |
2020 | 284639 | Gatefall | 0.006 | no |
2020 | 220827 | Planet Apocalypse | 0.006 | no |
2020 | 314893 | Fox Matters | 0.006 | no |
2020 | 274037 | Solar Storm | 0.005 | no |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.005 | no |
2020 | 302260 | Abandon All Artichokes | 0.005 | no |
2020 | 279497 | The Ratcatcher: The Solo Adventure Game | 0.005 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.397 | no |
2 | 2021 | 322708 | Descent: Legends of the Dark | 0.238 | yes |
3 | 2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.216 | no |
4 | 2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.202 | no |
5 | 2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.178 | no |
6 | 2022 | 317321 | Darkest Dungeon: The Board Game | 0.140 | no |
7 | 2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.117 | no |
8 | 2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.090 | no |
9 | 2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.090 | no |
10 | 2021 | 331549 | MiniQuest Adventures | 0.086 | no |
11 | 2022 | 281258 | Sub Terra II: Inferno's Edge | 0.064 | no |
12 | 2021 | 295785 | Euthia: Torment of Resurrection | 0.062 | no |
13 | 2023 | 274471 | Malhya: Lands of Legends | 0.061 | no |
14 | 2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.058 | no |
15 | 2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.056 | no |
16 | 2022 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.046 | no |
17 | 2021 | 299566 | Batman: The Animated Series Adventures – Shadow of the Bat | 0.041 | no |
18 | 2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.040 | no |
19 | 2021 | 329465 | Red Rising | 0.039 | no |
20 | 2022 | 266064 | Trudvang Legends | 0.034 | no |
21 | 2021 | 336195 | League of Dungeoneers | 0.033 | no |
22 | 2021 | 224793 | Gascony's Legacy | 0.027 | no |
23 | 2021 | 331787 | Tiny Epic Dungeons | 0.026 | no |
24 | 2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.026 | no |
25 | 2021 | 260524 | Beyond Humanity: Colonies | 0.026 | no |
26 | 2022 | 315610 | Massive Darkness 2: Hellscape | 0.024 | no |
27 | 2021 | 329670 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – Europe | 0.024 | no |
28 | 2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.022 | no |
29 | 2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.022 | no |
30 | 2021 | 336382 | Marvel United: X-Men | 0.021 | no |
31 | 2022 | 288080 | Dice Realms | 0.020 | no |
32 | 2021 | 324657 | Core Space: First Born | 0.020 | no |
33 | 2021 | 239189 | Chronicle X | 0.018 | no |
34 | 2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.018 | no |
35 | 2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.018 | no |
36 | 2021 | 287711 | The Path of the Adventurers | 0.017 | no |
37 | 2021 | 343562 | Horrified: American Monsters | 0.017 | no |
38 | 2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.015 | no |
39 | 2022 | 342900 | Earthborne Rangers | 0.015 | no |
40 | 2021 | 302461 | Intrepid | 0.014 | no |
41 | 2021 | 260789 | Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood of Venice | 0.014 | no |
42 | 2022 | 311988 | Frostpunk: The Board Game | 0.014 | no |
43 | 2021 | 332075 | Warhammer Quest: Cursed City | 0.014 | no |
44 | 2021 | 307386 | Set a Watch: Swords of the Coin | 0.013 | no |
45 | 2023 | 315727 | Last Light | 0.013 | no |
46 | 2023 | 351817 | Marvel Zombies: A Zombicide Game | 0.013 | no |
47 | 2021 | 301441 | Drawn to Adventure | 0.013 | no |
48 | 2022 | 303731 | Primal: The Awakening | 0.013 | no |
49 | 2021 | 315937 | X-Men: Mutant Insurrection | 0.012 | no |
50 | 2022 | 342444 | Black Rose Wars: Rebirth | 0.012 | no |
51 | 2021 | 286537 | Burgle Bros 2: The Casino Capers | 0.012 | no |
52 | 2022 | 275802 | Carnival Zombie: 2nd Edition | 0.012 | no |
53 | 2021 | 280984 | Ruins: Death Binder | 0.012 | no |
54 | 2022 | 319421 | Mission Catastrophe | 0.011 | no |
55 | 2022 | 338067 | 6: Siege – The Board Game | 0.011 | no |
56 | 2022 | 266003 | Dawnshade: The Watchers Prophecy | 0.011 | no |
57 | 2021 | 337397 | Warhammer Underworlds: Two-Player Starter Set | 0.011 | no |
58 | 2022 | 219650 | Arydia: The Paths We Dare Tread | 0.010 | no |
59 | 2022 | 242994 | Onimaru | 0.010 | no |
60 | 2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.010 | no |
61 | 2021 | 307305 | Bullet♥︎ | 0.010 | no |
62 | 2021 | 247585 | Waste Knights: Second Edition | 0.009 | no |
63 | 2022 | 331398 | Mythic Battles: Ragnarök | 0.009 | no |
64 | 2021 | 285192 | Destinies | 0.009 | no |
65 | 2021 | 342021 | Space Invaders | 0.009 | no |
66 | 2022 | 282775 | The Warp | 0.009 | no |
67 | 2022 | 333255 | Keep the Heroes Out! | 0.009 | no |
68 | 2022 | 298512 | Soulgivers | 0.009 | no |
69 | 2021 | 357028 | Dungeon Fighter (Second Edition) | 0.009 | no |
70 | 2021 | 301366 | Caves of Rwenzori | 0.008 | no |
71 | 2022 | 284842 | So, You've Been Eaten | 0.008 | no |
72 | 2021 | 173514 | Meeple Quest | 0.008 | no |
73 | 2021 | 312904 | Conan the Cimmerian: The Tower of the Elephant | 0.008 | no |
74 | 2021 | 329962 | Cantaloop: Book 2 – A Hack of a Plan | 0.008 | no |
75 | 2022 | 324090 | Scarface 1920 | 0.008 | no |
76 | 2021 | 247417 | Solomon Kane | 0.008 | no |
77 | 2022 | 330950 | Age of Galaxy | 0.008 | no |
78 | 2021 | 268504 | Adventure Tactics: Domianne's Tower | 0.008 | no |
79 | 2021 | 305682 | Rolling Realms | 0.008 | no |
80 | 2021 | 225274 | Deep Space D-6: Armada | 0.007 | no |
81 | 2022 | 306676 | Tales From the Loop: The Board Game | 0.007 | no |
82 | 2021 | 282776 | Tumble Town | 0.007 | no |
83 | 2021 | 340288 | Kids Chronicles: Quest for the Moon Stones | 0.007 | no |
84 | 2021 | 341284 | Dungeon Lite: Orcs and Knights | 0.007 | no |
85 | 2022 | 342372 | The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim – The Adventure Game | 0.007 | no |
86 | 2021 | 337324 | A.D.E.L.E. | 0.007 | no |
87 | 2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.007 | no |
88 | 2021 | 332290 | Stardew Valley: The Board Game | 0.007 | no |
89 | 2022 | 275284 | Arkeis | 0.007 | no |
90 | 2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.007 | no |
91 | 2021 | 299255 | Vienna Connection | 0.007 | no |
92 | 2021 | 318322 | Hidden Strike: American Revolution | 0.007 | no |
93 | 2022 | 284118 | Mechanical Beast | 0.006 | no |
94 | 2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.006 | no |
95 | 2021 | 286751 | Zombicide: 2nd Edition | 0.006 | no |
96 | 2021 | 258135 | Wild Assent | 0.006 | no |
97 | 2022 | 311823 | Nova Aetas Renaissance | 0.006 | no |
98 | 2021 | 279087 | Zerywia | 0.006 | no |
99 | 2021 | 347137 | Chronicles of Avel | 0.006 | no |
100 | 2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.006 | no |